Note sur la dynamique du déséquilibre des changes

Résumé En

Note on the dynamics of exchange disequilibrium The notion of exchange disequilibrium is defined not only with regard to the balance of payments but also with regard to the inadequacy of exchange rate adjustments and with regard to specific international capital movements. It is then observed that exchange disequilibria can vary according to the period of time or the geographical area under examination. The author notes, finally, that each case of disequilibrium has its own specific characteristics. The nature of the dynamics of exchange adjustment is studied in relation to a series of examples : underdeveloped countries practising either unbalanced or balanced growth, the older industrial economies of Western Europe, the dominant American economy. The ways in which disequilibria are created and diffused differ in each case. The study of the reactions to an exchange disequilibrium deals in turn with : monetary policy, budgetary policy, international capital transfers. The undiscriminate application of an overall monetary policy is not likely to be effective. It must be adapted to circumstances and selective in ils aims. Fiscal policy is frequently an indispensable adjunct of monetary policy. Public expenditure is, however, often incompressible in underdeveloped countries. Even in developed countries it plays a role in the orientation of the necessary adaptation of the economy and, in this respect, the country with an export surplus is at a marked advantage. This leads to a consideration of the role of international credit movements between debitor and creditor countries. An adequate use of this latter instrument can be of great help in the task of promoting balanced economic growth.