Climate adaptive response of rice yield in Vietnam: new insight through panel data modeling with heterogeneous slopes

Résumé En

Rice production is central to the Vietnamese economy, not only in terms of contribution to Vietnam's GDP, but also to the food security of its population. However, Vietnam is one of the countries most threatened by climate change in the coming decades, and its rice production in particular. This paper focuses on rice yields and investigates their evolution over time and between provinces over the period 1987-2015, depending on climatic conditions. Special attention is devoted to the impact of heat stress. This impact is measured taking into account the potential adaptation of farmers to these extreme events. To this end, a dynamic production function allowing for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in rice yield responses of to climatic conditions is estimated. Data descriptive analysis shows that the provinces with favorable conditions for rice growth are also those that face the most risk of heat stress. Estimation results show that these provinces adapt to heat stress conditions and that their adaptation eort begins to decrease when heat stress risk becomes too high. Taking adaptation into account then makes it possible to qualify the forecasts made regarding rice yields in the presence of climate change.