Long-Run Versus Short-Run Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Crops

Résumé En

In this paper, we propose an original empirical investigation of the long-run versus short-run impacts of climate change on the Tunisian agricultural sector. Using an original regional database, we apply the panel cointegration tests and estimation of Pedroni (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics S1 61:653–670, 1999; Review of Economics and Statistics 89:727–731, 2001) to estimate the long-run effects. We find that an increased annual temperature decreases both cereal and date productions, with an exception in highland areas. In addition, the annual rainfall has a positive effect on cereals, but rain shortages in the south affect production negatively in this region. The short-run climate effects are smaller than the long-run effects. The rainfall has a weak positive effect that is counterbalanced by the threat of brutal temperature increases over the last decades. This paper calls for the implementation of a public policy privileging and subsidizing the threatened areas. Adaptation measures should include the implementation of a water demand management system that promotes using scarce water resources more efficiently. Moreover, policy makers should seriously consider encouraging the development of drought-tolerant crops, especially in the south of Tunisia where global warming has caused a severe drought. In the north of Tunisia, adaptation measures may include choosing tree species and forestry practices less vulnerable to storms and fires, especially in Jendouba, the forestry region of Tunisia.