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3 mai 2021
- handle: 10670/1.59b5hr
- hal: hal-03215379
Mots-clés
Zombie Firms Bankruptcy Covid-19 G - Financial Economics/G.G3 - Corporate Finance and Governance/G.G3.G33 - Bankruptcy • Liquidation -fin]Sujets proches
Factors Agents, Manufacturers' Manufacturers' representatives Funds Funding Factors Businesses Firms Companies Enterprises Business organizations Organizations, Business Insolvency Privileged debts Cessio bonorum Bankruptcy--Law and legislation Finance, commerce, confiscations, etcCiter ce document
Mathieu Cros et al., « Will Schumpeter Catch COVID-19? Evidence from France », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10670/1.59b5hr
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Résumé
We estimate the factors predicting firm failures in the COVID crisisbased on French data in 2020. Although the number of firms filing forbankruptcy was much below its normal level (-36% compared to 2019)the same factors that predicted firm failures (primarily productivity anddebt) in 2019 are at work in a similar way as in 2020. Hence, the selectionprocess, although much reduced, has not been distorted in 2020. At thisstage, partial hibernation rather than zombification characterises theselection into firm survival or failure. We also find that the sectoralheterogeneity of the turnover COVID shock (proxied by the changein credit card transactions) has been largely (but not fully) absorbedby public policy support because it predicts little of the probability ofbankruptcy at the firm level. Finally, we sketch some potential scenariosfor 2021-2022 for different sectors based on our empirical estimates ofpredictors of firm failures.