Redefining the Stages of the Epidemiological Transition by a Study of the Dispersion of Life Spans: The Case of France

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Robině Jean-Marie.- Redefining the Stages of the Epidemiological Transition by a Study of the Dispersion of Life Spans: The Case of France Of the very few theories about the evolving health status of populations, one of the best known is that of the epidemiological transition. Formulated by Omran in 1971, it describes the changes in the cause-of-death pattern associated with the reduction in mortality rates during the demographic transition. Omran argued that the second stage, "the Age of Receding Pandemics", forms a transition between the "Age of Pestilence and Famine" and the "Age of Degenerative and Man-made Diseases". In 1986, Olshansky and Ault proposed adding a fourth stage to the epidemiological transition, with the "Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases". However, the changeovers from the second to third stages and from the third to fourth stages are hard to date. Indeed, examination of the changing dispersion in life spans casts doubt on the historical reality of the last two stages, though it does allow the move from the second to following stage to be dated, this article proposes therefore to merge Omran's third stage, "the Age of Degenerative diseases" with Olshansky and Ault's fourth stage, "the Age of Delayed Degenerative Diseases", to form a new stage, referred to as the "Age of the Conquest of the Extent of Life", characterized by the fact that the fall in mortality - which continues throughout this stage - is associated with little or no further concentration of life spans.