Survival Among Belgian Centenarians (1870-1894 Cohorts)

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Poulain Michel, Chambre Dany, Foulon Michel.- Survival Among Belgian Centenarians (1870-1894 Cohorts) Calculating the probability of dying among post-centenarians is problematic and often flawed by a high risk of error. This is partly due to the unreliability of statistical data on centenarians, and partly to the small populations concerned. The Belgian centenarian database of over 4,000 centenarians in the 1870 to 1894 birth cohorts used here endeavours to compensate for these two failings. Using this database, we have calculated annual probabilities of dying up to 104 years of age for men and 105 for women to an acceptable degree of accuracy. Male probabilities rise from 42 to 55%, female probabilities from 35 to 50%. Expressed in days, the mean remaining female life expectancy at age 100 is an estimated 722 days, against 615 for men. At age 105, the figures are 520 and 430 days, respectively. Recent trends indicate that the hazard of death decreases consistently with, for example, a life expectancy at age 100 of 695 days for women in the 1870-1884 cohorts, and 740 days for successor generations in the 1885-1894 cohorts. The annual probability of dying ostensibly continues to increase after age 105, but the widening confidence interval due to the contracting population precludes any conclusion being drawn as to whether the probability levels off or even decreases at a particular age. Only the larger cohorts of future centenarians will offer the more reliable data needed to clarify this.