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- handle: 10670/1.omvjfl
- hal: hal-04465392
- doi: 10.1038/s41558-022-01401-w
- WOS: 000821924500022
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41558-022-01401-w
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Climatic changes--Environmental aspects Global climate changes Climate change Climatic change Climate variations Climate changes Global climatic changes Changes, Climatic Climatic variations Climatic fluctuationsCiter ce document
Hélène Benveniste et al., « Climate change increases resource-constrained international immobility », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1038/s41558-022-01401-w
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Résumé
Migration is a widely used adaptation strategy to climate change impacts. Yet resource constraints caused by such impacts may limit the ability to migrate, thereby leading to immobility. Here we provide a quantitative, global analysis of reduced international mobility due to resource deprivation caused by climate change. We incorporate both migration dynamics and within-region income distributions in an integrated assessment model. We show that climate change induces decreases in emigration of lowest-income levels by over 10% in 2100 for medium development and climate scenarios compared with no climate change and by up to 35% for more pessimistic scenarios including catastrophic damages. This effect would leave resource-constrained populations extremely vulnerable to both subsequent climate change impacts and increased poverty.