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15 décembre 2012
- handle: 10670/1.pbge5a
- halshs: halshs-01385845
- doi: 10.1177/1065912911421016
Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1177/1065912911421016
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European elections Forecasting TurnoutSujets proches
Prediction Forecasts Futurology Pattern ModelCiter ce document
Gilles Ivaldi et al., « Deriving a Forecast Model for European Election Turnout », HAL-SHS : sciences politiques, ID : 10.1177/1065912911421016
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Résumé
Turnout is a key indicator in European Parliament elections in the absence of a direct executive outcome. Forecasting turnout is an important exercise in requiring the identification of a parsimonious model with good lead time from the array of structural, demographic, and attitudinal variables employed in rich explanatory models of turnout, and simultaneously minimizing prediction error. Building on a series of regression models using aggregate data, this article explores the applicability of such an approach to turnout in the EU-27 countries and considers the explanatory added value that deriving such a forecast model can also provide.