Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2
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- handle: 10670/1.preieo
- halshs: halshs-03672103
- doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-01392-2
- PUBMED: 34750498
- PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC8575948
- WOS: 000716101700057
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-021-01392-2
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/34750498
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I - Health, Education, and Welfare/I.I1 - Health/I.I1.I18 - Government Policy • Regulation • Public Health -bio]/Human health and pathology/Emerging diseases -bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases -bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologieSujets proches
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d'Albis Hippolyte et al., « Quantification of the effects of climatic conditions on French hospital admissions and deaths induced by SARS-CoV-2 », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1038/s41598-021-01392-2
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Résumé
An estimation of the impact of climatic conditions—measured with an index that combines temperature and humidity, the IPTCC—on the hospitalizations and deaths attributed to SARS-CoV-2 is proposed. The present paper uses weekly data from 54 French administrative regions between March 23, 2020 and January 10, 2021. Firstly, a Granger causal analysis is developed and reveals that past values of the IPTCC contain information that allow for a better prediction of hospitalizations or deaths than that obtained without the IPTCC. Finally, a vector autoregressive model is estimated to evaluate the dynamic response of hospitalizations and deaths after an increase in the IPTCC. It is estimated that a 10-point increase in the IPTCC causes hospitalizations to rise by 2.9% (90% CI 0.7–5.0) one week after the increase, and by 4.1% (90% CI 2.1–6.4) and 4.4% (90% CI 2.5–6.3) in the two following weeks. Over ten weeks, the cumulative effect is estimated to reach 20.1%. Two weeks after the increase in the IPTCC, deaths are estimated to rise by 3.7% (90% CI 1.6–5.8). The cumulative effect from the second to the tenth weeks reaches 15.8%. The results are robust to the inclusion of air pollution indicators.