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2022
- handle: 10670/1.pvy8cf
- hal: hal-02905749
- doi: 10.1080/01603477.2020.1794903
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/01603477.2020.1794903
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
balance-of-payments constrained growth income elasticities of external trade structural break C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C2 - Single Equation Models • Single Variables/C.C2.C22 - Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes F - International Economics/F.F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance/F.F4.F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics F - International Economics/F.F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance/F.F4.F43 - Economic Growth of Open EconomiesSujets proches
Trade, International World trade Global trade Foreign commerce Global commerce External trade Foreign tradeCiter ce document
Sébastien Charles et al., « The slowing of growth in France: an interpretation based on Thirlwall’s law », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1080/01603477.2020.1794903
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Résumé
In this paper, we evaluate the French balance-of-paymentsconstrained growth rate and we compare it with the effectivegrowth rate. Empirically, we show that France is experiencing,simultaneously to its European integration, a substantial increasein the income elasticity of demand for imports and a collapse in thegrowth rate of its exports. Within the balance-of-paymentsconstrained growth approach, this twofold negative effect is amajor obstacle to true economic recovery and full employment.