The accountability imperative for quantifiying the uncertainty of emission forecasts : evidence from Mexico
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1 septembre 2017
- handle: 10670/1.qnli23
- hal: hal-03389325
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/5cu79nktr182k9k26ecvt6f8p2
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Mots-clés
Uncertainty Projections Structured expert judgment Accountability Emission-reduction targets Gross domestic product growth ratesSujets proches
Prediction Forecasts FuturologyCiter ce document
Daniel Puig et al., « The accountability imperative for quantifiying the uncertainty of emission forecasts : evidence from Mexico », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10670/1.qnli23
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Résumé
Governmental climate change mitigation targets are typically developed with the aid of forecasts of greenhouse-gasemissions. The robustness and credibility of such forecasts depends, among other issues, on the extent to whichforecasting approaches can reflect prevailing uncertainties. We apply a transparent and replicable method to quantify theuncertainty associated with projections of gross domestic product growth rates for Mexico, a key driver of greenhouse-gasemissions in the country. We use those projections to produce probabilistic forecasts of greenhouse-gas emissions forMexico. We contrast our probabilistic forecasts with Mexico’s governmental deterministic forecasts. We show that,because they fail to reflect such key uncertainty, deterministic forecasts are ill-suited for use in target-setting processes.We argue that (i) guidelines should be agreed upon, to ensure that governmental forecasts meet certain minimumtransparency and quality standards, and (ii) governments should be held accountable for the appropriateness of theforecasting approach applied to prepare governmental forecasts, especially when those forecasts are used to deriveclimate change mitigation targets.