Les conflits fluides : concepts et scénarios

Résumé Fr En

La capacité de transformation rapide de l’ensemble de leurs composantes devient un caractère de plus en plus marquant des conflits du champ international. Cette fluidité redéfinit les acteurs – sociologie, modes de fonctionnement, objectifs –, leurs modes opératoires et la dynamique générale des conflits du nouvel environnement international. Les acteurs étatiques doivent voir le développement de ces conflits fluides comme un défi futur d’importance.

Rapid and ongoing transformation of conflicts, or “fluidity,” may well become the most intriguing and destabilizing characteristic of the future international environment. What would such a scenario imply in terms of actors’ sociology, means, and conflict systems? Fluid actors will be able to transform rapidly, remaining undetectable; as a result of a complex relationship with territory, they could have truly chaotic objectives. In terms of strategies and tactics, these actors will make systematic efforts to break with routine and to destabilize their adversaries, defeating them through a mind game rather than through a military confrontation. The systems of conflict resulting from this fluidity will be highly volatile, interdependent, and complex. In essence, it will be impossible to define these systems with one given type of conflict.