Fiche du document
1 décembre 2021
- handle: 10670/1.r1jbwa
- hal: hal-03720181
- doi: 10.1093/erae/jbab037
- WOS: 000800439000001
Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/erae/jbab037
Mots-clés
International trade Agricultural and trade policies Structural gravity Brexit C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General/C.C1.C13 - Estimation: General F - International Economics/F.F1 - Trade/F.F1.F13 - Trade Policy • International Trade Organizations F - International Economics/F.F1 - Trade/F.F1.F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade F - International Economics/F.F1 - Trade/F.F1.F15 - Economic Integration Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q1 - Agriculture/Q.Q1.Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C5 - Econometric Modeling/C.C5.C50 - GeneralCiter ce document
Angela Cheptea et al., « How will Brexit affect the patterns of European agricultural and food exports? », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1093/erae/jbab037
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Résumé
We analyse how Brexit will affect European agrifood trade using a structural gravity model and by comparing the present deal to four alternative scenarios on the UK’s trade policy. European Union (EU) countries will suffer marginal drops in imports, exports and real income, with stronger effects for Ireland. EU exports to the UK will drop by 10 per cent. European products will be redirected to both intra-EU and extra-EU markets and sold at slightly lower prices. Meat products will suffer the largest losses, Ireland being particularly vulnerable due to strong interconnections with British production chains and increased costs for accessing EU and extra-EU markets.