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8 novembre 2022
- handle: 10670/1.u6l3y2
- halshs: halshs-03843257
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
WTI-Brent spread Twitter speculation D - Microeconomics/D.D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty/D.D8.D80 - General G - Financial Economics/G.G1 - General Financial Markets/G.G1.G14 - Information and Market Efficiency • Event Studies • Insider Trading Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q48 - Government Policy -fin] -fin]/Computational Finance [q-fin.CP] -fin]/Pricing of Securities [q-fin.PR] -fin]/Statistical Finance [q-fin.ST]Sujets proches
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Catalin Dragomirescu-Gaina et al., « How to 'Trump' the energy market: evidence from the WTI-Brent spread », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10670/1.u6l3y2
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Résumé
Donald Trump's use of Twitter was unprecedented. Despite his erratic communication style, some of Trump's strong statements were made in reference to the U.S. oil & gas industry, in line with his domestic policy agenda aimed at supporting re-industrialization and local investment. Did his Twitter messages actually reach domestic oil producers, refiners and transport operators or rather speculators willing to financially gamble on new information sources? To address this question, we model the WTI-Brent spread, which commonly reflects supply bottlenecks in the U.S. crude oil sector, using a nonlinear approach that reveals the perverse influence of some of Trump's tweets particularly on market speculative dynamics. Finally, we outline policy recommendations to counteract the market consequences of speculative behaviour driven by political noise.