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1 mars 2020
- handle: 10670/1.w2mcbx
- hal: hal-03403071
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/5a3rl1um0d9rdbe3itnk6f8m89
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/hdl/2441/5a3rl1um0d9rdbe3itnk6f8m89
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
Fiscal policy rules Real-time data Asymmetric stabilization Fiscal consolidation E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook/E.E6.E61 - Policy Objectives • Policy Designs and Consistency • Policy Coordination E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook/E.E6.E62 - Fiscal Policy H - Public Economics/H.H6 - National Budget, Deficit, and DebtSujets proches
Taxation--Government policy Tax policyCiter ce document
Pierre Aldama et al., « Asymmetric Macroeconomic Stabilization And Fiscal Consolidation In The Oecd And The Euro Area », Archive ouverte de Sciences Po (SPIRE), ID : 10670/1.w2mcbx
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Résumé
This paper presents empirical evidence of asymmetric fiscal policy along the business cycle, using a real-time panel data on 19 OECD countries. We estimate various specifications of fiscal policy rules, in which ex ante fiscal policy has two major objectives: macroeconomic stabilization and fiscal consolidation. First, we find that a symmetric fiscal policy rule may not be an accurate representation of real-time fiscal policy. We find evidence in favor of asymmetric fiscal policy, in particular regarding the response to output gap. Second, fiscal policy appears to be generally procyclical in downturns and a-cyclical in upturns, typically in the Euro Area and during the crisis. Third, we do not find significant evidence of a procyclical fiscal consolidation in the OECD and the Euro Area, although surplus-debt feedback coefficients are generally larger in downturns. Our results are robust to an alternative measure of business cycle and to country exclusion.