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31 janvier 2024
- handle: 10670/1.yicnys
- hal: hal-04181871
- doi: 10.1080/1350178X.2024.2303113
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/1350178X.2024.2303113
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Central bank Forecasting Macroeconomic modeling Bank of England Models C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit/E.E5.E52 - Monetary PolicyCiter ce document
Aurélien Goutsmedt et al., « To change or not to change The evolution of forecasting models at the Bank of England », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10.1080/1350178X.2024.2303113
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Résumé
Why do policymakers and economists within a policymaking institution choose to throw away a model and to develop an alternative one? Why do they choose to stick to an existing model? This article contributes to the literature on the history and philosophy of modelling by answering these questions. It delves into the dynamics of persistence, change, and building practices of macroeconomic modelling, using the case of forecasting models at the Bank of England (1974-2014). Based on archives and interviews, we document the multiple factors at play in model building and model change. We identify three sets of factors: the agency of modellers, institutional factors, and the material factor. Our investigation shows the diversity of explanations behind the decision to change a model: each time, model replacement resulted from a different combination of the three types of factors.