A 3D index for measuring economic resilience with application to the modern international and global financial crises

Résumé 0

The study and measurement of economic resilience is ruled by high level of complexity related to the diverse structure, functionality, spatiality, and dynamics describing economic systems. Towards serving the demand of integration, this paper develops a three-dimensional index, capturing engineering, ecological, and evolutionary aspects of economic resilience that are considered separately in the current literature. The proposed index is computed on GDP data of worldwide countries, for the period 1960-2020, concerning 14 crises considered as shocks, and was found well defined in a conceptual context of its components. Its application on real-world data allows introducing a novel classification of countries in terms of economic resilience, and reveals geographical patterns and structural determinants of this attribute. Impressively enough, economic resilience appears positively related to major productivity coefficients, gravitationally driven, and depended on agricultural specialization, with high structural heterogeneity in the low class. Also, the analysis fills the literature gap by shaping the worldwide map of economic resilience, revealing geographical duality and centrifugal patterns in its geographical distribution, a relationship between diachronically good performance in economic resilience and geographical distance from the shocks origin, and a continent differentiation expressed by the specialization of America in engineering resilience, Africa and Asia in ecological and evolutionary resilience, and a relative lag of Europe and Oceania. Finally, the analysis provides insights into the effect of the 2008 on the globe and supports a further research hypothesis that political instability is a main determinant of low economic resilience, addressing avenues of further research.