The Deterrence Project

Résumé 0

The study of interstate conflict, in general, and crises in particular, has a long and distinguished history at the University at Buffalo, not only in the department of political science, but in the departments of psychology, history, philosophy, and anthropology as well. In 1967 the University founded the Center for International Conflict Studies. Directed by Glenn H. Snyder, the Center's focus was on negotiation and bargaining. The Center produced one major work, Glenn H. Snyder and Paul Diesing's Conflict Among Nations: Bargaining, Decision Making, and System Structure in International Crises. Published in 1977 by Princeton University Press, this classic contribution remains relevant today. It was republished by Princeton in 2015. The theory of interstate crisis developed in Conflict Among Nations tested a number of deductive theories and models using sixteen case studies, some of which were themselves book length, written by five faculty members, one research associate, and five graduate students at the University at Buffalo. The main purpose of this project is to make these case studies, a number of working papers, and other products of the Center available to the academic community. Snyder and Diesing report that they based their test of several deductive theories and models on a number of case studies. Thirteen in-depth studies were written up. Three others, the Bosnia crisis of 1908, the United States and Japan crisis of 1940 to 1941, and the Yom Kippur "alert crisis" of 1973 were studied but not fully developed. The Balkans crises of 1912 - 1913, and the Syrian-Jordan crisis of 1970 were examined "less intensively". Snyder and Diesing both took notes on theoretically relevant aspects of the case studies, which are provided as well. In addition to the case studies, nine working papers were written under the auspices of the Center. Working Paper # 1 is the original typescript of Glenn Snyder's seminal "'Prisoner's Dilemma' and 'Chicken' Models in International Politics" which was subsequently published in International Studies Quarterly in 1971. Working Paper # 8 does not exist as a separate document. Working Paper #7, however, contains two distinct sections, the second of which may have been intended as a separate document. In addition to the working papers, some related material is provided. One is a passage that Snyder may have cut from an earlier draft of Working Paper # 1. Another is a coding sheet used by Diesing that is presumably the template he used to compose Chapter IV, "Information Processing." Two unattributed documents, both using Richardson type action-reaction models, are also included below. Paul Diesing is most likely the author of "Divided Government" and "A Non-Bargaining Model." It is possible, however, that Dean Pruitt may also have written them.