Dynamics of a headwater system and peatland under current conditions and with climate change

Résumé 0

Interactions between headwater aquifers and peatlands have received limited scientific attention. Hydrological stresses, including those related to climate change, may adversely impact these interactions. In this study, the dynamics of a southern Québec headwater system where a peatland is present is simulated under current conditions and with climate change. The model is calibrated in steady state on field-measured data and provides satisfactory results for transient-state conditions. Under current conditions, simulations confirm that the peatland is fed by the fractured bedrock aquifer year-round and provides continuous baseflow to its outlets. Climate change is simulated through its impact on groundwater recharge. Predicted precipitation and temperature data from a suite of regional climate model scenarios provide a net precipitation variation range from +10% to −30% for the 2041–2070 horizon. Calibrated recharge is modified within this range to perform a sensitivity analysis of the headwater model to recharge variations (+10%, −15% and −30%). Total contribution from the aquifer to rivers and streams varies from +14% to −44% of the baseline for +10% to −30% recharge changes from spring 2010 data, for example. With higher recharge, the peatland receives more groundwater, which could significantly change its vegetation pattern and eventually ecosystem functions. For a −30% recharge, the peatland becomes perched above the aquifer during the summer, fall and winter. Recharge reductions also induce sharp declines in groundwater levels and drying streams.