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2013
- handle: 10670/1.2aong8
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Vincent Tiberj et al., « One choice, multiple reasons : Political preferences, the space of possibilities and votes in 2012 », Revue française de science politique (English), ID : 10670/1.2aong8
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Voting and voters have changed. The growing level of hesitation, the ups and downs of turnout and of partisan support are clear evidence of this change. In this article, we attempt to understand this “new deal” via the presentation and use of a particular tool: voting probability questions. These questions present a very different portrait of voters than the one drawn by the classical voting intentions questions. A negative logic of voting is now visible, as is the space of voting possibilities of individuals. Furthermore, these questions shed new light on the dynamics of the 2012 presidential campaign and on the ongoing ideological reconfiguration both on the left and on the right. These analyses are based on the TriÉlec surveys conducted between July 2011 and March 2012.