A Paradox of Thrift in General Equilibrium Without Forward Markets

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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01097.x

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Christophe Chamley, « A Paradox of Thrift in General Equilibrium Without Forward Markets », HALSHS : archive ouverte en Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société, ID : 10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01097.x


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Abstract 0

After 2008, the US personal saving rate had its strongest postwar jump, from 2% to 5%, and the investment ratio its sharpest fall from its postwar average of 16% to its lowest level of 12%. The coordination of saving and investment is analyzed here in a theoretical model of general equilibrium with rational expectations and no forward market. Shocks affect preferences for future consumption. A paradox of thrift is proven that formalizes an argument in the General Theory of Keynes but the equilibrium is a constrained Pareto optimum. Textbook fiscal policies are neutral at best, or inefficient.

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