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1 septembre 2011
- handle: 10670/1.abli3n
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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Frederico Araújo Turolla et al., « Modeling and forecasting foreign direct investment into Brazil with ARIMA », Economia Global e Gestão, ID : 10670/1.abli3n
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Résumé
In this paper we have tested the hypothesis that the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into Brazil have a Moving Average pattern in line with predictions from the theory. We have modeled the FDI series in US dollars using a univariate model, the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The results confirmed the hypothesis derived from the theory that, after correcting for detected outliers, there is a Moving Average pattern in FDI inflows into Brazil as there is quite a dynamic series with relatively rapid adjustment towards equilibrium values. The patterns found can be used in univariate modeling to generate forecasts of the future values of the series. We present a forecast for the series and discuss the issue of forecast accuracy using the Theil Coefficient.