The Gamblers’ Conclave : Bets, Public Opinion, and Continuity of the Papal Power in 16th-Century Rome

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In 16th -century Rome, the most important scansions of a pontificate gave rise to numerous bets, which mobilised huge resources, and arose enthusiasm among the whole Roman society. The bettors’ slips, which were often resold, indicated how probable they evaluated an event: thus they centralised rumours and information. The out-of-control in bets gradually blurred reality: it became difficult to know if the deaths and elections of popes at the bookmakers’actually echoed real events outside. This disjunction had unexpected political consequences: by mimicking conclaves through betting, the Romans invented a new ritual that filled the political vacuum. Gamblers, as they assumed the attributes of sovereignty, unwillingly enabled the continuance of political power, and the progressive pacification of pontifical states. At the same time, the fear arose that the pope’s election could be guided not by the Holy Spirit, but by financial interests: consequently, the popes started prohibiting those bets and restraining public speech, so that the princely secret would not be confiscated by the crowd.