One-Night Stands and Long-Term Commitments: Presidential Approval for Sebastián Piñera in Chile, 2009-2014
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1 avril 2019
- handle: 10670/1.ywpml4
Ce document est lié à :
10.4067/S0718-090X2019000100049
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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Polls Resultants Expenses Costs (Economics)Citer ce document
Patricio Navia et al., « One-Night Stands and Long-Term Commitments: Presidential Approval for Sebastián Piñera in Chile, 2009-2014 », Revista de Ciencia Política (Santiago), ID : 10670/1.ywpml4
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Résumé
In 2010, Sebastián Piñera (2010-2014) became the first rightwing President of Chile after the dictatorship. His approval fluctuated significantly, experiencing an overall downward decline. Under favorable economic conditions, declining presidential approval must be explained by things other than economic vote. Using logistic regression models and predicted probabilities based on presidential approval polls, we test four hypotheses on the determinants of approval for Piñera: a punishment vote against the Concertación, support tied to economic performance, issue-based support, and the cost of ruling. There is evidence in support of each of the four hypotheses. Although voting for Piñera might have been a one-night stand, economic vote determinants and, to a lesser extent, issue salience and the cost of ruling explain presidential approval under Piñera.