Linear and nonlinear causality between marriages, births and economic growth

Résumé 0

This article represents the aim to identify the number of births as a forward-looking indicator regarding an economic crisis for Mexico and other countries with different levels of economic development. To state the supposed behavior of the number of births it was used simple graphical evidence, a Granger causality analysis and phase synchronization among a set of economic variables and life-long decisions such as having a baby and marriage. The results for all the studied countries showed an anticipated behavior from the number of births regarding important economic variables and some causal relations. The phase synchronization showed the absence of synchronization during crisis periods coinciding with the graphical evidence. Similar studies could consider other demographic variables such as divorce and suicide. Despite the availability and periodicity of data were the main limitations in this study and lead the selection of the studied economies, the phase synchronization had never been used with demographic variables before. Marriages result in not being relevant to determinate the number of births while the number of births resulted in a variable that fosters the GDP.