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29 octobre 2019
- 1910.13301
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CPIs (Consumer price indexes) Cost of living indexes Consumer price index Retail price indexesCiter ce document
Zhenzhong Wang et al., « Analyzing China's Consumer Price Index Comparatively with that of United States », arXiv - économie
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Résumé
This paper provides a thorough analysis on the dynamic structures and predictability of China's Consumer Price Index (CPI-CN), with a comparison to those of the United States. Despite the differences in the two leading economies, both series can be well modeled by a class of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with Covariates (S-ARIMAX). The CPI-CN series possess regular patterns of dynamics with stable annual cycles and strong Spring Festival effects, with fitting and forecasting errors largely comparable to their US counterparts. Finally, for the CPI-CN, the diffusion index (DI) approach offers improved predictions than the S-ARIMAX models.