Robust Orthogonal Machine Learning of Treatment Effects

Résumé 0

Causal learning is the key to obtaining stable predictions and answering \textit{what if} problems in decision-makings. In causal learning, it is central to seek methods to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) from observational data. The Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML) is one of the prevalent methods to estimate ATE. However, the DML estimators can suffer from an \textit{error-compounding issue} and even give extreme estimates when the propensity scores are close to 0 or 1. Previous studies have overcome this issue through some empirical tricks such as propensity score trimming, yet none of the existing works solves it from a theoretical standpoint. In this paper, we propose a \textit{Robust Causal Learning (RCL)} method to offset the deficiencies of DML estimators. Theoretically, the RCL estimators i) satisfy the (higher-order) orthogonal condition and are as \textit{consistent and doubly robust} as the DML estimators, and ii) get rid of the error-compounding issue. Empirically, the comprehensive experiments show that: i) the RCL estimators give more stable estimations of the causal parameters than DML; ii) the RCL estimators outperform traditional estimators and their variants when applying different machine learning models on both simulation and benchmark datasets, and a mimic consumer credit dataset generated by WGAN.