Fiche du document
13 septembre 2022
- 2209.05767
Sujets proches
Statistical data Cases, clinical reports, statistics Statistical data Statistical analysis Statistical methods Statistical science Pattern Model AssessmentCiter ce document
Luca Aiello et al., « Bayesian Functional Emulation of CO2 Emissions on Future Climate Change Scenarios », arXiv - économie
Partage / Export
Résumé
We propose a statistical emulator for a climate-economy deterministic integrated assessment model ensemble, based on a functional regression framework. Inference on the unknown parameters is carried out through a mixed effects hierarchical model using a fully Bayesian framework with a prior distribution on the vector of all parameters. We also suggest an autoregressive parameterization of the covariance matrix of the error, with matching marginal prior. In this way, we allow for a functional framework for the discretized output of the simulators that allows their time continuous evaluation.