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5 mars 2023
- 2303.02773
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Economics - General EconomicsSujets proches
Hostilities Conflict, Armed (War) Wars Armed conflict (War) Fighting Economic theory Political economyCiter ce document
David Audretsch et al., « The Economic Costs of the Russia-Ukraine War: A Synthetic Control Study of (Lost) Entrepreneurship », arXiv - économie
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Résumé
This synthetic control study quantifies the economic costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war in terms of foregone entrepreneurial activity in both countries since the invasion of Crimea in 2014. Relative to its synthetic counterfactual, Ukraine's number of self-employed dropped by 675,000, corresponding to a relative loss of 20%. The number of Ukrainian SMEs temporarily dropped by 71,000 (14%) and recovered within five years of the conflict. In contrast, Russia had lost more than 1.4 million SMEs (42%) five years into the conflict. The disappearance of Russian SMEs is driven by both fewer new businesses created and more existing business closures.