Structural Econometric Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number for Covid-19 Across U.S. States and Selected Countries
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9 septembre 2023
- 2309.08619
Mots-clés
Economics - EconometricsSujets proches
United States states States of the United States American states (United States) United States--States Generation Procreation Pangenesis Amphimixis Factors Agents, Manufacturers' Manufacturers' representatives FactorsCiter ce document
Ida Johnsson et al., « Structural Econometric Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number for Covid-19 Across U.S. States and Selected Countries », arXiv - économie
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Résumé
This paper proposes a structural econometric approach to estimating the basic reproduction number ($\mathcal{R}_{0}$) of Covid-19. This approach identifies $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ in a panel regression model by filtering out the effects of mitigating factors on disease diffusion and is easy to implement. We apply the method to data from 48 contiguous U.S. states and a diverse set of countries. Our results reveal a notable concentration of $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ estimates with an average value of 4.5. Through a counterfactual analysis, we highlight a significant underestimation of the $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ when mitigating factors are not appropriately accounted for.