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16 mars 2024
- 2403.10907
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Economics - EconometricsSujets proches
United States states States of the United States American states (United States) United States--StatesCiter ce document
Emanuele Bacchiocchi et al., « Macroeconomic Spillovers of Weather Shocks across U.S. States », arXiv - économie
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Résumé
We estimate the short-run effects of severe weather shocks on local economic activity and cross-border spillovers operating through economic linkages between U.S. states. We measure weather shocks using emergency declarations triggered by natural disasters and estimate their impacts with a monthly Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model for U.S. states. Impulse responses highlight country-wide effects of weather shocks hitting individual regions. Taking into account economic interconnections between states allows capturing much stronger spillovers than those associated with mere spatial adjacency. Also, geographical heterogeneity is critical for assessing country-wide effects of weather shocks, and network effects amplify the local impacts of shocks.