Dynamic Local Average Treatment Effects

Résumé 0

We consider Dynamic Treatment Regimes (DTRs) with One Sided Noncompliance that arise in applications such as digital recommendations and adaptive medical trials. These are settings where decision makers encourage individuals to take treatments over time, but adapt encouragements based on previous encouragements, treatments, states, and outcomes. Importantly, individuals may not comply with encouragements based on unobserved confounders. For settings with binary treatments and encouragements, we provide nonparametric identification, estimation, and inference for Dynamic Local Average Treatment Effects (LATEs), which are expected values of multiple time period treatment contrasts for the respective complier subpopulations. Under standard assumptions in the Instrumental Variable and DTR literature, we show that one can identify Dynamic LATEs that correspond to treating at single time steps. Under an additional cross-period effect-compliance independence assumption, which is satisfied in Staggered Adoption settings and a generalization of them, which we define as Staggered Compliance settings, we identify Dynamic LATEs for treating in multiple time periods.