The hybrid dilemma -- do hybrid technologies play a transitionary or stationary role in transitions processes?

Résumé 0

This research unravels the stationary or transitionary dilemma of hybrid technologies in transitions processes. A system dynamics technology interaction framework is built and simulated based on Technological Innovation System and Lotka-Volterra to investigate the inter-technology relationship impacts and modes that hybrid technologies establish with incumbent and emerging technologies. This is conducted for the case of conventional, hybrid and battery electric vehicles under various scenarios . Results reveal that, by acting as an exploration-hybrid solution, hybrid technologies maintain a transitionary role by supporting mainly the technological development side of emerging technology. On the contrary, by acting as an exploitation-hybrid solution, they hardly (or never) sustain an inhibitive role against both the technological and market development sides of incumbent technology. While hybrid technologies may play a stationary role on the market development side in transitions processes, simulation results show that maintaining all inter-technology relationship modes as business-as-usual (i.e., baseline scenario) but instead simultaneously strengthening the various socio-technical dimensions of emerging technology and destabilising the various socio-technical dimensions of incumbent technology (i.e., sociotechnical scenario) is a more promising pathway in both short term (e.g., an accelerated uptake of emerging technology and decline of incumbent technology) and long term (e.g., highest emission reduction). Findings, additionally, reinforce the existence of both spillover and try-harder versions of 'sailing-ship effect', which are either seriously doubted in the literature or partially validated using raw bibliometric and patents data.