Re-considering the status quo: Improving calibration of land use change models through validation of transition potential predictions

Fiche du document

Discipline
Type de document
Périmètre
Langue
Identifiant
Relations

Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105574

Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pissn/1364-8152

Ce document est lié à :
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/urn/urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_278055EAB05C2

Licences

info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess , CC BY 4.0 , https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/



Sujets proches En

Predictions

Citer ce document

Benjamin Black et al., « Re-considering the status quo: Improving calibration of land use change models through validation of transition potential predictions », Serveur académique Lausannois, ID : 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105574


Métriques


Partage / Export

Résumé 0

The increasing complexity of the dynamics captured in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change modelling has made model behaviour less transparent and calibration more extensive. For cellular automata models in particular, this is compounded by the fact that validation is typically performed indirectly, using final simulated change maps; rather than directly considering the probabilistic predictions of transition potential. This study demonstrates that evaluating transition potential predictions provides detail into model behaviour and performance that cannot be obtained from simulated map comparison alone. This is illustrated by modelling LULC transitions in Switzerland using both Logistic Regression and Random Forests. The results emphasize the need for LULC modellers to explicitly consider the performance of individual transition models independently to ensure robust predictions. Additionally, this study highlights the potential for predictor variable selection as a means to improve transition model generalizability and parsimony, which is beneficial for simulating future LULC change.

document thumbnail

Par les mêmes auteurs

Sur les mêmes sujets

Sur les mêmes disciplines

Exporter en