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2022
- doi: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001112
- issn: 2767-3375
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001112
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/36962605
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/eissn/2767-3375
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/urn/urn:nbn:ch:serval-BIB_40D35930C3144
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess , CC BY 4.0 , https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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Carcinoma Cancers Malignancy (Cancer) Malignant tumorsCiter ce document
B. Trächsel et al., « Predicting the burden of cancer in Switzerland up to 2025. », Serveur académique Lausannois, ID : 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001112
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Résumé
Predicting the short-term evolution of the number of cancers is essential for planning investments and allocating health resources. The objective of this study was to predict the numbers of cancer cases and of the 12 most frequent cancer sites, and their age-standardized incidence rates, for the years 2019-2025 in Switzerland. Projections of the number of malignant cancer cases were obtained by combining data from two sources: forecasts of national age-standardized cancer incidence rates and population projections from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Age-standardized cancer incidence rates, approximating the individual cancer risk, were predicted by a low-order Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The contributions of changes in cancer risk (epidemiological component) and population aging and growth (demographic components) to the projected number of new cancer cases were each quantified. Between 2018 and 2025, age-standardized cancer incidence rates are predicted to stabilize for men and women at around 426 and 328/100,000, respectively (