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7 juillet 2020
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess , http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/
Mots-clés
ENGLAND MORTALITY GEOGRAPHIC_MOBILITY EPIDEMICS REGIONAL_DISPARITY DATA_ANALYSIS DEATH WALESSujets proches
Patients--Mortality Mortality, Law of Mobility Internal migrationCiter ce document
Ugofilippo Basellini et al., « Linking excess mortality to Google mobility data during the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales », Archined : l'archive ouverte de l'INED, ID : 10.31235/osf.io/75d6m
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Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented worldwide to curb the spread of COVID-19. However, the effectiveness of such governmental measures in reducing the mortality burden remains a key question of scientific interest and public debate. In this study, we leverage digital mobility data to assess the effects of reduced human mobility on excess mortality, focusing on regional data in England and Wales between February and August 2020. We estimate a robust association between mobility reductions and lower excess mortality, after adjusting for time trends and regional differences in a mixed-effects regression framework and considering a five-week lag between the two measures. We predict that, in the absence of mobility reductions, the number of excess deaths could have more than doubled in England and Wales during this period, especially in the London area. The study is one of the first attempts to quantify the effects of mobility reductions on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic.