Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers

Administration Induction, Ampliative Ampliative induction Inference (Logic) Corporation executives Company officers Managers Business executives Corporate officers

Citer ce document

U. Hoffrage et al., « Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers », Serveur académique Lausannois, ID : 10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00642

Partage / Export

Résumé 0

In Bayesian inference tasks, information about base rates as well as hit rate and false-alarm rate needs to be integrated according to Bayes' rule after the result of a diagnostic test became known. Numerous studies have found that presenting information in a Bayesian inference task in terms of natural frequencies leads to better performance compared to variants with information presented in terms of probabilities or percentages. Natural frequencies are the tallies in a natural sample in which hit rate and false-alarm rate are not normalized with respect to base rates. The present research replicates the beneficial effect of natural frequencies with four tasks from the domain of management, and with management students as well as experienced executives as participants. The percentage of Bayesian responses was almost twice as high when information was presented in natural frequencies compared to a presentation in terms of percentages. In contrast to most tasks previously studied, the majority of numerical responses were lower than the Bayesian solutions. Having heard of Bayes' rule prior to the study did not affect Bayesian performance. An implication of our work is that textbooks explaining Bayes' rule should teach how to represent information in terms of natural frequencies instead of how to plug probabilities or percentages into a formula.

Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers

Fiche du document

Mots-clés 0

Sujets proches En

Citer ce document

Métriques

Partage / Export

Résumé 0

Par les mêmes auteurs

Sur les mêmes sujets

Exporter en