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1991
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Conviction Argumentation Underpinning Argumentation Ratiocination Probability Statistical inference Coexistence, Peaceful Peaceful coexistence Holy Office Donations Presents Prediction Forecasts Futurology Proof vérité (concept)Citer ce document
Fernando Gil, « La preuve de la prophétie », Annales, ID : 10.3406/ahess.1991.278926
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The Proof of prophecy. The theory of prophecy put forth by the Jesuit Antonio Vieira at the moment of his defense before the Inquisition in 1665-1666 is analyzed here. The theory concerns prophecy of Portugese Joachimite inspiration that announces the resurrection of king and the advent of Fifth Empire bringing thousand years of peace. Vieira presents his theory in the guise of syllogism. It is studied here in the light of the allowing binary oppositions operation/object and expectation/fulfillment. Vieira's "realist" theory makes the truth of the prophecy depend on the realization of the foretold events. The vain expectation of the king's resurrection nevertheless brought realism to an impasse. To avoid it, Vieira attenuated the import of the prophecy, making it merely probable, not certain. But the real solution was found in something other than probability : in the abductive reasoning underpinning the syllogistic presentation and in an "intuitionist"rather than realist the prophecy. It is not the realization of the prediction, but rather the hallucination of the future in the present that is the proofofprophecy.