Epargne forcée, inflation et croissance : l'économie monétaire selon D.H. Robertson

Résumé En Fr

This paper presents the methods and the results contained in Robertson's theoretical writings in the twenties. His analysis rests on two main tools : 1) A production process representation through time, which combines real and monetary aspects of economic activity, and makes dynamic analysis easier. 2) The Cambridge demand for cash balances which, in his model, can be used as a substitute for the consumption or the saving functions. Robertson shows how the logic of production can contradict that of demand and examines what will be the issue of their discrepancy. He makes the forced saving concept more accurate through defining different kinds of « lacking » that he uses to interpret the unwinding of inflation processes. Growth rests on sudden bursts of investment, which can scarcely be met by equally large changes in voluntary saving. Hence the monetary policy dilemma : must price stability be aimed at first, or must industrial progress be supported by allowing a little forced saving ?

La croissance, qui suppose des variations brutales de l'investissement, lui paraît difficilement conciliante avec le respect des intentions d'épargne des agents. D'où le dilemme de la politique monétaire : doit-on assurer en priorité la stabilité des prix, ou bien faut-il soutenir le progrès industriel en acceptant une certaine dose d'épargne forcée ?