Prévision des prix et étude sectorielle des entreprises pendant la préparation du Ve Plan

Résumé En

One of the major innovations in the preparation of the Vth Plan was unquestionably the introduction programming in terms of current prices {value programming). This involved determining the medium term trend of prices ; large scale research on this field was conducted during the preparation of the Vth Plan. This research is the subject of the present article. There was indeed some research on price forecasting during the preparation of the IVth Plan. The work undertaken during the preparation of the Vth Plan, was — at any rate at the outset — a continuation of this research but it became quite important from the point of view of method, though still only experimental. The effective contribution it made to the Vth Plan was nevertheless limited : apart from its experimental character, it required, in practice, a long time for the complete elaboration of each sectoral forecast ; there was a lack of satisfactory information (at least at the beginning, since this information improved considerably as the preparation of the Vth Plan progressed) ; the structure of the model ultimately adopted was only gradually deliverted. The research done in connection with the preparation of the Vth Plan, however, now opens the way to an undoubtedly very important improvement in planning technique. The determination of prices and enterprises accounts (with respect to foreign competition) which is a part of the medium term sectoralised physical and financial model worked out and formalised for the preparation of the Vlth Plan, is a direct result of the research done for the preparation of the Vth Plan. In addition to its historical interest, an analysis will help towards understanding the solution finally adopted for the construction of the Vlth Plan's integrated model. The studies which we conducted for the Vth and Vlth Plans were in fact complementary. The research done for the Vth Plan was essentially economic ; whereas the work done for the Vlth Plan consists mainly in the integration of the sectoral price-firms sub-model in an overall model, and the mathematical treatment and resolution of this model. From an economic point of view, the price-enterprise submodel integrated in the general model of the Vlth Plan nevertheless falls short of the one which was designed during the preparation of the Vth Plan. The formalised model for the Vlth Plan is, in fact, only a first attempt ; in the light of the experience of the formalisation achieved, a new and economically richer model can be worked out. It could then fully take over the economic contribution which can be derived from the research conducted in connection with the Vth Plan, and the thinking which subsequently carried it further. This research, in practice, went beyond the simple problem of determining prices. It also ventured into the field of sectoral programming of firms and the analysis of their behaviour as a whole. Prospective research into the price system is not conducted in isolation ; it forms part of the wider framework of the sectoral analysis of firms and the projection of firms accounts by sector (i.e. by group of firms with the same principal activity) and by legal category (public firms, private companies, sole proprietorships) . Prices depend closely on the behaviour of firms and the trend of their costs. For this reason, in order to have a firmer basis for determining the medium term trend of prices, a projection was made of sector accounts ; at the outset the value of this projection was essentially to supply an exhaustive and synthetic framework of analysis for studying the trend of the charges on firms and allowing for the interdependence of prices. At the beginning of the research, the reasoning fell entirely within the simplified limits of a '■'■cost model". It very soon became evident that a model of this kind was to be improved if we desired, for instance, to take account of the incidence of foreign competition and financial factors ; we thus turned to another type of model, which can be called a sectoral model of the behaviour of firms. The principle of a model of this kind is to take account of the coherence which exists between the different decisions of firms, for example, at the level of prices, production, investments, financing etc. For the same enterprise or the same group of enterprises, these different factors cannot be determined separately ; allowance must be made for the interdependence which exists between them. This is fundamental and enables us to understand how and why a modification in the environment of firms and the constraints which weigh upon them may considerably change the reactions of firms, and even completely invert the direction of causality. Thus, in a closed economy, or for sheltered sectors, prices are determined (or at least everything happens in the medium term as though they were determined) by the level of production (itself fixed by demand) and in the light of operating costs and having the self -financement, or the income desired (or more exactly globally "desired" in the light of internal competition existing between firms in the same sector). Conversely, for sectors exposed to foreign competition (andjor subject to constraint on prices) it is the disposable self-financing (or income) which determines investments and, in the medium term, production possibilities. A model of this kind therefore does not freeze the direction of reactions but explicitly takes account of the behaviour and strategy of firms. By doing this, it makes it possible to study the incidence of constraints on the decisions of firms (and in particular on prices and growth) and therefore, in particular, to analyse the effects of foreign competition, which has now become important and even necessary if it is desired to construct a model appropriate to the present and future conditions of our economy. The taking into consideration of the constraints and of the interdependence which exists between the different decisions of a group of firms allows the direct introduction of financial factors ; instead of a dichotomy between the "real" world and the "financial" world, the interdependence wcich exists between them is thus respected. Our researches constitute a first attempt to analyse the financial behaviour of firms ; it must certainly be carried further, but it already allows a better appreciation of the incidence which financial operations may have, from the point of view of firms, on growth and prices. The sectoral model of the behaviour of firms constructed during the preparation of the Vth Plan has yet another point of interest, namely that relating to action. It is particularly well suited to throw light on economic policy, both at global or semi-global level and at sector level. This was, moreover, one of the aims which we set ourselves in constructing this model. It makes it possible, in practice, to determine what is, at firms level, the incidence of measures of economic policy, whether they relate to State-administered prices ( and particularly public utility charges ) or fiscal policy (e.g. changes in the rates of value added tax, rates and scales of payroll tax, single and specific taxes, etc.) or parafiscal policy (e. g. social security contributions) or financial policy and credit policy, etc. The decisions and reactions of firms however, are not independent of their environment ; there is, on the contrary, an interdependence which should be taken into account if it is desired to make a correct assessment of the incidence of decisions of the public authorities. The model relating to firms must therefore be incorporated in a general model of the economy in which the other economic transactors are also included, and it was in fact constructed with a view to such incorporation. Moreover, it constitutes an essential element in the general model and largely conditions its construction. Thus incorporated in a general model, the sub-model relating to firms then assumes its full significance and value from the point of view of analysing the incidence of measures of economic policy. First of all, it has the advantage of allowing the study of measures which need not be only global but may, on the contrary, be specific and sectoral, and the assessment of their incidence both at sectoral and at global level. This is already an important advantage and allows the contemplation and study of sectoralised economic policies, which is essential for the definition and implementation of an industrial policy. The value of a sectoral model is nevertheless greater. The reactions of firms are closely conditioned by their environment and by the constraints which weigh upon them (particularly as a result of foreign competition.) But these constraints and this environment are not the same for all firms ; on the contrary, they vary from sector to sector, particularly in the case of foreign competition, which affects certain sectors only. Similarly, the behaviour of different firms is not the same, for example in the case of public firms, private companies and sole proprietorships. The result is that the same measure of economic policy will not have the same effects on all the sectors or firms considered ; the effects may even be opposite. Thus, the incidences on the economy of the same major increase in public utility charges may be different according as they affect households more or less than firms and according to the degree to which they affect a given sector. The determination of public utility charges according to a priori rules should therefore not automatically lead to better economic development : what matters is to fix these charges in such a way as to optimise their incidence on the economy ; this does not necessarily imply a balanced budget, and may, in the light of the true conditions of the economy, call for a selective price policy, which is contrary to marginalist ethics (but the marginalist theory postulates an hypothetical economic which is far removed from the truth). This raises the problem of the economic significance of the policy known as the policy of "true prices" in the sense in which it is now understood. In practice, only the use of a sectoral model of the behaviour of firms affords a firm basis for a policy of "optimum" prices, in the light of the true characteristics of the economy. The same applies to other economic policies relating to firms. A global analysis is not enough ; it cannot in fact tell us anything about the true incidence of a measure, since measures which are ex ante globally identical, may have diametrically opposed effects according to the way in which they are actually implemented (very especially if sectoral differentiations are introduced). This strikes us as important, especially from the point of view of the constraining factor in our economic environment which is now constituted and will increasingly be constituted in future years by foreign competition. This does not weigh equally on all sectors (some of them are, moreover totally sheltered by their very nature), and this prevents us from using a simple global analysis of firms in the future. The research which led to a sectoral model of the behaviour of firms thus assumes its full significance and value in the economic context which will be ours in the future. It is thus particularly suitable from the point of view of forecasting and economic policy. Finally, another valuable feature of this model is that it can be used to study the incidence of economic policy measures in a very general manner, without simply being limited to measures directly affecting certain prices or bearing on the costs of firms ; as we have already seen, it explicitly introduces the financial factors and this is no doubt one of its most interesting aspects. From the point of view of economic policy and the effectively possible growth (which may, in the absence of appropriate measures, be less than the physically possible growth) this is important : the effective competitiveness of our firms does not depend solely on their costs, it also depends on their financial structure and means of financing. The fact that financial factors are accounted for in the model thus makes it possible to determine what is, from the point of view of firms, the incidence of financial policy on prices and growth. This is particularly important in a competitive economy ; while in a closed economy, production is, in the medium term, equal to demand, this is no longer true in an open economy ; the production of the sectors which are exposed to foreign competition then depends on their competitiveness. Competitive policy, both at the level of costs and of financial factors, conditions the realisable growth. The model relating to firms, proposed here, allows reflection in this field and throws light on the decisions which should be taken to optimise economic development. This model, however, should be regarded as a first attempt only. Many improvements are in fact possible and necessary. This, however, calls for the continuance of the research started in connection with the Vth Plan, as well as for the improvement of our statistical information. The construction of a better model is also conditioned by the quality of the framework of National Accounts, which serve to support the model. It is true that, on the whole, the present framework of French national accounts is fairly well adapted ; some improvements are, however, desirable. An evolution in the framework of national accounts is, moreover, essential, so far as the environment of our economy is changing profoundly. Thus, for the early Plans, the point of view of volume programming was essential ; effective growth was conditioned by the physical possibilities of growth. From the point of view of firms, the concept of branch was the most appropriate, and the Input-Output Table was the preferential instrument of analysis. In contrast, what has now become important, in view of our openness to foreign competition, is the financial possibilities of growth. The concept of branch has lost some of its importance in favour of the concept of sector, and Sector Accounts have become the most important instrument. The Input-Output Table has lost some of its importance, and it is conceivable that it may be advantageous in the future to reason completely in terms of sectors, even at the level of production and factors of production. The Input-Output Table then becomes useless ; the study of the balance of goods and services then calls simply for the use of a Table of Sales and Purchases. Such a change in the framework of the accounts is, moreover, all the more desirable, since the basic information lies in fact at the level of firms and their accounts ; the concept of branch is only an abstract concept. The concept of sector then becomes of paramount importance ; its use should subsequently be completed by recourse to the concept of groups in view of the increasing importance of financial questions. The evolution of structures thus reopens the whole question of the present conception of National Accounts ; it also challenges certain aspects of Planning. The concept of Plan in terms of a generalised market survey should be modified since, in a competitive economy, the production of a branch does not automatically depend (even in the medium term) on demand ; it also depends on the competitivity of producers in relation to their foreign competitors. But this depends on the economic policy of the government. The accent should therefore be laid on economic policy. From this point of view, the Plan is essentially a set of aims and measures of economic policy designed to reach these aims, taking due account of our economic environment and of constraints which weigh upon our economy. Since the future is uncertain, economic policy is bound to be conditional. In these circumstances, the Plan is a strategy of development. What now conditions growth is not only the physical possibilities of growth, but also largely the economic policy adopted (defined in terms of conditional economic policies) ; this is in fact what conditions the financially possible growth. It is therefore easy to see the potential value of sectoral programming to planning. The work of sectoral programming on prices and enterprises begun in connection with the preparation of the Vth Plan, thus seems bound to be very important from the point of view both of forecasting techniques and of planning itself. The incidence of this work, moreover, should not be limited to the medium term ; adaptation to short term problems is feasible and should modify the present conception of Economic Budgets. The scope of sectoral programming is thus very general.