La prospective de la consommation et des modes de vie. L'état des travaux français

Résumé En Fr

Prospective Consumption and Living Patterns in Present-day French Research. Classic projections are limited by the object of the prevision itself and deal more in expenditures for consumption than in behavior or the notion of change itself, according to Professor Kende. There has been a conceptual evolution in the object of the study — living patterns and behavior having become the important factors. Present research in economics also relies on Sociology, adding new dimensions (spatial, temporal and behaviorist). From a strictly methodological point of view, projection, as such, is not a science (since it studies the non-existent — what is to be) but a form of reflection on the manner in which the factors are combined and interact. It calls upon other sciences, namely the Social Sciences and is, in a way, one of their principle «consumers». The author criticizes the use of models and quantitative methods for prospection. In conclusion he notes the importance of a recent study made by the CREDOC, «Living Patterns for 1985» focused on the forces of change and inertia which will affect French behavior and living patterns for the next ten years. In Kende's opinion the most valuable studies approach the essential problems by concentrating on tendencies in an abstract but precise manner.

Pour terminer, Pierre Kende rappelle l'intérêt de l'étude du CREDOC portant sur les « Modes de vie 1985 », qui présente les grands facteurs de changement et d'inertie agissant sur les comportements et le mode de vie des Français au cours des dix prochaines années. En conclusion, il constate que les travaux les meilleurs sont précisément ceux qui raisonnent sur les tendances d'une manière abstraite mais précise, pour dégager les problèmes essentiels.