(Restricted) Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders Survey

Résumé 0

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey collects monthly data on shipments, inventories, new orders, and unfilled orders from manufacturing companies. The orders, as well as the shipments and inventory data, are widely used and are valuable tools for analysts of business cycle conditions, including members of the Council of Economic Advisers, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve Board, Conference Board, and the business community. New orders serve as an indicator of future production commitments, and the data are direct inputs into the leading economic indicator series. New orders, as reported in the monthly M3 press release, are derived by adding shipments to the net change in the unfilled orders from the previous month. The ratio of unfilled orders to shipments is an important indicator of pressure on manufacturing capacity. The monthly M3 estimates are based on a relatively small panel of domestic manufacturers and reflect primarily the month-to-month changes of large companies. There is a clear need for periodic benchmarking of the M3 estimates to reflect the manufacturing universe. The Census of Manufactures, which is conducted every five years and covers the manufacturing sector, provides annual benchmarks for the shipments and inventories data in the monthly M3 survey. In the years between Economic Censuses, the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) provides these annual benchmarks. The Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders (M3UFO) Survey provides the annual benchmarks for the unfilled orders data. The industries selected for the M3UFO survey are those which the U.S. Census Bureau has determined to maintain considerable unfilled orders. Annual unfilled orders benchmarks are produced from the M3UFO survey for 47 industry categories encompassing the following major groups in manufacturing: Primary Metals Fabricated Metal Products Machinery Computers and Electronic Products Electrical Equipment, Appliances, and Components Transportation Equipment Furniture and Related Products Miscellaneous Products The M3UFO survey is necessary to ensure future accuracy of the new orders data in the M3 survey and to determine which NAICS industries continue to maintain unfilled orders.