Birmanie

Résumé 0

Since the 2021 military coup in Myanmar, peaceful protests and the subsequent repression have given way to a full-blown, protracted war between the State Administration Council (SAC) and a myriad of armed resistance groups, now operating across most of the country, and even controlling some significant parts of the territory. However, no clear military victory seems to be in sight for any party. From a political perspective, the SAC has announced elections would be held in 2023 — although unconfirmed, they might represent a possible exit for a junta faced with unprecedented challenges. Meanwhile, the political opposition seeks to roll out a parallel administration, but lacks the resources to gather steam and credibility, within a complex ethnic and political landscape. On the international stage, the SAC faces Western sanctions and even some level of isolation on the ASEAN stage. However, it is bolstering its re-engagement with some pragmatic partners —including Russia, another pariah power. Society as a whole is deeply impacted by the economic crisis, inflation, soaring poverty rates, brain drain, despair, and the criminalization of the economy. These long-term risks represent an additional constraint for any future political transition.