Domani si vota: simulazioni elettorali a confronto

Résumé 0

Pervasive political corruption has brought the first Italian republic (1946-94) to its bitter end. The transition from the first to the second republic will be achieved with a mixed system based for 3/4 on constituencies where parliament members are elected by plurality rule and for 1/4 with a proportional system. According to the opinion polls made since march 1993, the change in political opinion amongst the Italian electorate has been more remarkable in this short period than in the previous fifty years. In such a fluctuating situation it is difficult, if not impossible, to produce reliable predictions. Therefore simulation techniques can be helpful in identifying alternative scenarios. Ten such different scenarios are offered in this essay, written in December 1993. The basic assumption is that the territorial distribution of votes is crucial in the case of a prevalently uninominal system such as the one that will be inaugurated in Italy next spring. The main risk however, remains the possibility that none of the rassemblement will manage to obtain true majority in parliament. If this should be the case, Italy will be in a situation of political instability analogous to the concluding years of the previous system.