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2 février 2024
- handle: 10670/1.01u6kp
- halshs: halshs-04443037
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
Weather shocks Agriculture Local projections VAR C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C2 - Single Equation Models • Single Variables/C.C2.C23 - Panel Data Models • Spatio-temporal Models E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q1 - Agriculture/Q.Q1.Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis • Prices Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q5 - Environmental Economics/Q.Q5.Q54 - Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global WarmingSujets proches
Commercial products--Prices Commodity prices Price theory Justum pretium Economic theory Political economy TradeCiter ce document
Cédric Crofils et al., « The Dynamic Effects of Weather Shocks on Agricultural Production », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10670/1.01u6kp
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Résumé
This paper investigates the dynamic effects of weather shocks on monthly agricultural production in Peru, using a Local Projection framework. An adverse weather shock, measured by an excess of heat or rain, always generates a delayed negative downturn in agricultural production, but its magnitude and duration depend on several factors, such as the type of crop concerned or the timing at which it occurs. On average, a weather shock-a temperature shock-can cause a monthly decline of 5% in agricultural production for up to four consecutive months. The response is time-dependent: shocks occurring during the growing season exhibit a much larger response. At the macroeconomic level, weather shocks are recessionary and entail a decline in inflation, agricultural production, exports, exchange rate and GDP.