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2 mai 2025
- ISIDORE Id: 10670/1.02e2b0...
- hal: hal-05021482
- doi: 10.2139/ssrn.5200178
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Contracts and specifications Contracts and specifications Carbon tax Duties Fee system (Taxation) Taxation, Incidence of Tax reform Tax policy Taxes Civil disorders Impoverished people Disadvantaged, Economically Low-income people Poor people Pauperism Poor--Economic conditions Poor, The Economically disadvantaged Political thought Government Political theory Civil government Commonwealth, The Science, Political Administration Politics Distribution of income Inequality of income Funds Funding Pattern Model Resultants Fighting Finance, commerce, confiscations, etcCiter ce document
Mahdi Fawaz et al., « Social Unrest and Environmental Performance », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10.2139/ssrn.5200178
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Résumé
There is a growing consensus that policies such as carbon taxes are needed to improve environmental performance. We propose a theoretical framework and a model to examine how environmental concerns determine political support for carbon taxation and the incentives for the poor to revolt, replace the incumbent government, and achieve a fairer distribution of income. Our main result is that the incentive to revolt is an inverted U-shaped function of environmental performance. On the empirical side, we construct a normalized Social Unrest Index (SUI) based on riots and battles data from the ACLED database. Then, we analyze the determinants of SUI in a panel of 211 countries between 1997 and 2022 including a quadratic term of the EPI index (Yale University). We find an inverted U-shaped relationship that is robust in all the specifications tested. In autocratic regimes, as EPI rises from 30% to 40%, SUI predicted average almost doubles from 12.8% to 20.4%, while it falls at higher EPI levels. Our results have important policy implications.
