Rational Heuristics ? Expectations and behaviors in Evolving Economies with Heterogeneous interacting agents
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1 décembre 2017
- ISIDORE Id: 10670/1.049b6f...
- hal: hal-03455368
- SCIENCESPO: 2441/31dhti786q9k0q2i04klh6no54
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info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/hdl/2441/31dhti786q9k0q2i04klh6no54
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
Complexity Expectations Heterogeneity Heuristics Learning Agent based model Computational economics C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C63 - Computational Techniques • Simulation Modeling E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook G - Financial Economics/G.G1 - General Financial Markets G - Financial Economics/G.G2 - Financial Institutions and Services/G.G2.G21 - Banks • Depository Institutions • Micro Finance Institutions • Mortgages O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth/O.O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate ProductivitySujets proches
Agency (Philosophy) Agents Person (Philosophy)Citer ce document
Giovanni Dosi et al., « Rational Heuristics ? Expectations and behaviors in Evolving Economies with Heterogeneous interacting agents », HAL SHS (Sciences de l’Homme et de la Société), ID : 10670/1.049b6f...
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Résumé
We analyze the individual and macroeconomic impacts of heterogeneous expectations and action ruleswithin an agent-based model populated by heterogeneous, interacting firms. Agents have to cope with acomplex evolving economy characterized by deep uncertainty resulting from technical change, imperfectinformation and coordination hurdles. In these circumstances, we find that neither individual normacroeconomic dynamics improve when agents replace myopic expectations with less naïve learningrules. In fact, more sophisticated, e.g. recursive least squares (RLS) expectations produce less accurateindividual forecasts and also considerably worsen the performance of the economy. Finally, we experimentwith agents that adjust simply to technological shocks, and we show that individual and aggregateperformances dramatically degrade. Our results suggest that fast and frugal robust heuristics are not asecond-best option: rather they are “rational” in macroeconomic environments with heterogeneous,interacting agents and changing “fundamentals”.
