AIDS mortality trends in Mexico, 1988-1997

Résumé 0

Objective. To assess the geographic distribution and trendsof AIDS deaths for the 1988-1997 period in Mexico. Materialand Methods. Crude and adjusted mortality rates wereestimated for the 1988-1997 period. A trend test was performedusing the simple linear regression method. Standardizedmortality ratios (SMR) and years of potential lifelost (YPLL) were calculated for each Mexican state. Results.During the study period (1988-1997), there were26,999 AIDS deaths in Mexico; 86.5% (23,354) of them wereamong men. The mean age at the time of death was 38.4years for men and 37.7 years for women (p> 0.05). Thecrude AIDS mortality rate for the period of study was 3.02cases (95% CI: 2.94, 3.06) per 100,000 inhabitants. The adjustedrate was 3.13 (95% CI: 3.09, 3.17), with 5.22 (95%CI: 5.16 - 5.29) for men and 0.82 (95% CI: 0.79-0.84) forwomen. The states with the highest SMR were: Baja California(SMR: 248.69; 95% CI: 234.02-263.36), Mexico City (SMR:220.74; 95% CI: 215.57-225.91), and Jalisco (SMR: 169.16;95% CI: 162.88-175.44). Similarly, a Potential Lost Life YearsIndex (PLLYI) analysis by state showed a greater risk of prematureAIDS mortality in the same states [Baja California(PLLYI index: 236.33; 95% CI: 233.97-238.68), Mexico City(PLLYI: 194.68; 95% CI: 193.88 - 195.48), and Jalisco (PLLYI:170.69; 95% CI: 169.60-171.79)]. Conclusions. Mortalitytrends indicate that AIDS mortality in Mexico increased byan annual rate of 23% between 1988 and 1997. The adjustedAIDS mortality rate increased from 0.75 per 100 000 in1988, to 4.20 per 100 000 in 1997, with the largest burdenof mortality in men (male to female ratio of 6:1). Wetherefore expect that a decreasing effect on AIDS mortalitytrends will be observed in the next years. The English versionof this paper is available too at: http://www.insp.mx/salud/index.html