Evaluating the impact of the Ebola epidemic on aid allocation across sectors in Sierra Leone : an interrupted time series analysis

Résumé 0

Epidemics, like natural disasters in general, are highly disruptive events that can drastically shift circumstances and priorities in affected countries. In already vulnerable developing and aid-dependent countries, any reprioritization and reallocation considerations are not nationally limited, but are likely to also extend to international donors. Applying sectoral aid allocation theory to the context of the 2014-2016 Ebola crisis, this study examines how the Ebola epidemic impacted donor aid allocation across sectors. This gap in research is approached quantitatively through an interrupted time series analysis of aid flows across sectors between 2005 and 2019 in Sierra Leone. Although mixed and partly inconclusive, the results suggest that the epidemic induced immediate and sustained changes in aid flows to given sectors, both during as well as in the aftermath of the crisis. Significant differences are observed between effects on bilateral and multilateral aid. While multilateral aid shows to react with increases in aid to non-health sectors (i.e., infrastructure, education and non-health aid in general), this is not observed for bilateral aid. When looking at the largest donors individually, strong support is found that the United States responded to the crisis with cross-sectoral reallocation of aid from other sectors towards the health sector. On a general level, the results also suggest that the Ebola epidemic led to a sustained decline in infrastructure aid in the years following the epidemic. Despite their preliminary nature, these findings can provide important implications for affected recipient governments to anticipate and respond to accordingly.