The Macroeconomic and Redistributive Effects of Shielding Consumers from Rising Energy Prices: a Real Time Evaluation of the French Experiment *
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12 septembre 2023
- handle: 10670/1.0ybjhc
- hal: hal-04204685
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess
Mots-clés
HANK model Energy crisis Tariff shield Policy evaluation C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C5 - Econometric Modeling/C.C5.C54 - Quantitative Policy Modeling C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C6 - Mathematical Methods • Programming Models • Mathematical and Simulation Modeling/C.C6.C63 - Computational Techniques • Simulation Modeling E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles/E.E3.E32 - Business Fluctuations • Cycles E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics/E.E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook/E.E6.E65 - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes H - Public Economics/H.H1 - Structure and Scope of Government/H.H1.H12 - Crisis ManagementSujets proches
Commercial products--Prices Commodity prices Price theory Justum pretium Energy resources Power supply Energy Energy Conservation of energy Correlation of forces EnergyCiter ce document
François Langot et al., « The Macroeconomic and Redistributive Effects of Shielding Consumers from Rising Energy Prices: a Real Time Evaluation of the French Experiment * », HAL-SHS : économie et finance, ID : 10670/1.0ybjhc
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Résumé
The French government has implemented a tariff shield on energy products to dampen the impact of the increase in energy prices started in 2021. To assess the macroeconomic and redistributive effects of this policies, we propose a new methodology for ex-ante evaluations, based on the government forecasts embedded in the Finance Act and on a new-Keynesian business cycle model with heterogeneous agents. From a macroeconomic perspective, this policy supports economic growth and curbs inflation, but slightly rises the debt-to-GDP ratio. In terms of redistribution, this policy contains the rise in consumption inequalities. We compare the effects of this policy with alternative policies such as a re-indexation of wages on prices or a redistributive policy targeted at the most vulnerable households.